Hispanics

When U.S. politicians talk about what Hispanic voters want, they often bring up immigration. Many members of Congress, especially Democrats, assume Hispanic voters want less immigration enforcement and more immigration. In 2020, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez led calls to cut the Border Patrol’s budget to punish them for “inflicting harm on our communities.” By “inflicting harm,” she apparently meant guarding the U.S.-Mexico border and arresting those crossing illegally.
 
Among Republicans, Rep. Mayra Flores symbolizes a new breed of Hispanic officeholders who stand for stricter border enforcement. Ms. Flores, who won a special election in June to represent the 34th Congressional district in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, is the first Republican to represent her area in 150 years, and the first woman born in Mexico to ever enter Congress. She recently called on Congress to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas for failing to enforce immigration laws and causing the border crisis.
 
Which of these women has a better handle on the immigration views of America’s 62 million Hispanics? According to two large new polls of Hispanic likely voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports, Ms. Flores wins by a mile.
 
Fifty-two percent of Hispanic likely voters believe the government is doing “too little to reduce illegal border crossings and visitor overstays.” Only 15% believe the government is doing “too much.” And 25% say the government’s efforts are about right, and 9% aren’t sure.
 
So more than three times as many Hispanic voters think the government is neglecting the border than feel the government is over-policing it. That’s significant!
 
Another question: Should the government require every business to use the federal E-Verify system to make sure new employees can legally work in the U.S.? By a huge margin, 73% to 18%, Hispanic likely voters say yes!
 
Should the approximately 12 million illegal aliens living in the U.S. get amnesty? Hispanics are split on that, with 46% favoring it and 51% opposing it. But when you look at just those who “strongly favor” or “strongly oppose” amnesty, the picture clarifies. Only 24% “strongly” favor such an amnesty, while 36% “strongly” oppose it.
 
Another hot-button issue is chain migration, which is one immigrant getting citizenship and then sponsoring extended family members. When these more distant relatives come in and get their citizenship, they in turn sponsor their siblings and parents, leading to never-ending chains. Rasmussen asked whether immigrants should be able to sponsor extended family members, or should they be able to sponsor only spouses and minor children. By 66% to 27%, Hispanic likely voters were clear: Immigrants should be able to sponsor only spouses and minor children.
 
While Republican members of Congress agree that illegal immigration should be stopped, they become a little more tongue-tied when it comes to legal immigration. Former President Donald Trump wanted to increase legal immigration, he sometimes said. What do America’s Hispanic voters say? Fifty-eight percent say they want to cut legal immigration numbers below the current 1 million a year. Only 15% want to increase the annual number!

As Democrats’ prospects in the 2022 mid-term elections dim, the party needs to revive itself with what was once a reliable constituency – Hispanic voters.

A Wall Street Journal poll taken in December found Hispanic voters split 37% to 37% “if the election were held today.” The Journal poll also showed that Hispanic voters mirror the overall voter pool. When asked how Biden is handling his responsibilities, 42% approved of the president’s job performance, and 54% disapproved – in line with the 41% approval and 57% disapproval among the broader voting public.

Since the Journal published its results, conditions in the country have worsened, more bad news for the flailing administration. As of late May, only divine intervention can save Democrats from electoral calamity when November rolls around.

A clarifying note: the term Hispanic voter should be interpreted broadly. The Census Bureau includes as Hispanic any person who, when asked, identifies as Hispanic. Included are Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, South Americans and other mostly Spanish-language speakers.

Continued erosion in the Hispanic vote would leave Democrats’ chances of maintaining its slim margin in Congress at nil. Equis Labs, which studied the Latino electorate, found that in 2020 swings toward the GOP of 20 points occurred in parts of Florida’s Miami-Dade County, 12 points in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas and double-digit swings in parts of the Northeast. In South Florida, the move was large enough to flip two congressional seats from Democrat to Republican.

Mark Zandi, Moody Analytics chief economist, wrote that, despite a booming jobs market, today’s political environment is among the toughest for incumbents that he’s ever surveyed. The consensus among political analysts like Zandi is that voters are out to punish incumbents with their Republican vote. If conventional wisdom is correct and if Hispanics continue to abandon Democrats, they’ll be the minority in the upcoming 118th Congress.

Hispanic voters’ shifting allegiance took the establishment media by surprise, but not other impartial, national scene observers. First, Hispanic voters have the same goals as other citizens – a stable economy, educational opportunities for their children and a good quality of life.

The 2010 Census counted 50.5 million Hispanics in the United States, making up 16.3% of the total population. The nation's Latino population, which was 35.3 million in 2000, grew 43% over the decade. The Hispanic population also accounted for most of the nation's growth—56%—from 2000 to 2010.

(See more re: U.S. population growth during the last decade.)

The new federal census shows Nebraska’s population increased by 115,078 in the last ten years. For the most part, the growth is all about Hispanics. 

The just-released 2010 census says there are 1.8 million Nebraskans.

Hispanics accounted for 63 percent of the state’s overall growth. Nebraska has 167,405 Hispanic residents; that number is up nearly 73,000 since the 2000 census.

Most of the overall population growth was in the eastern part of the state, and most of that growth was in Douglas, Lancaster or Sarpy counties. More than half of the state’s population lives in one of those counties.

Looking at population projections for Texas, demographer Steve Murdock concludes: "It's basically over for Anglos."

Two of every three Texas children are now non-Anglo and the trend line will become even more pronounced in the future, said Murdock, former U.S. Census Bureau director and now director of the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University.

Steve Murdock

Today's Texas population can be divided into two groups, he said. One is an old and aging Anglo and the other is young and minority. Between 2000 and 2040, the state's public school enrollment will see a 15 percent decline in Anglo children while Hispanic children will make up a 213 percent increase, he said.