Commentary: Joe Guzzardi — Hispanic voters abandoning Democrats’ ship

As Democrats’ prospects in the 2022 mid-term elections dim, the party needs to revive itself with what was once a reliable constituency – Hispanic voters.

A Wall Street Journal poll taken in December found Hispanic voters split 37% to 37% “if the election were held today.” The Journal poll also showed that Hispanic voters mirror the overall voter pool. When asked how Biden is handling his responsibilities, 42% approved of the president’s job performance, and 54% disapproved – in line with the 41% approval and 57% disapproval among the broader voting public.

Since the Journal published its results, conditions in the country have worsened, more bad news for the flailing administration. As of late May, only divine intervention can save Democrats from electoral calamity when November rolls around.

A clarifying note: the term Hispanic voter should be interpreted broadly. The Census Bureau includes as Hispanic any person who, when asked, identifies as Hispanic. Included are Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, South Americans and other mostly Spanish-language speakers.

Continued erosion in the Hispanic vote would leave Democrats’ chances of maintaining its slim margin in Congress at nil. Equis Labs, which studied the Latino electorate, found that in 2020 swings toward the GOP of 20 points occurred in parts of Florida’s Miami-Dade County, 12 points in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas and double-digit swings in parts of the Northeast. In South Florida, the move was large enough to flip two congressional seats from Democrat to Republican.

Mark Zandi, Moody Analytics chief economist, wrote that, despite a booming jobs market, today’s political environment is among the toughest for incumbents that he’s ever surveyed. The consensus among political analysts like Zandi is that voters are out to punish incumbents with their Republican vote. If conventional wisdom is correct and if Hispanics continue to abandon Democrats, they’ll be the minority in the upcoming 118th Congress.

Hispanic voters’ shifting allegiance took the establishment media by surprise, but not other impartial, national scene observers. First, Hispanic voters have the same goals as other citizens – a stable economy, educational opportunities for their children and a good quality of life.